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Bitcoin Faces Critical Resistance at $63,900

The Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin (BTC) is facing a key resistance level at $63,900.
  • Profit-taking during price increases is common and does not necessarily signal the end of a bull market.
  • Long-term holders are not yet showing signs of a market top.
  • The Bitcoin halving could trigger another price rally.

Bitcoin Facing Critical Resistance

Bitcoin has shown volatile price movements in recent months. After a 22% increase in July, when the price climbed from $56,000 to $68,000, there was another 17.5% jump in the last two weeks. The current resistance level is $63,900. This mark is crucial, as breaking through and confirming it as support is seen as a signal for transitioning into a formal bull market.

Profit-Taking is Normal

During periods of price increases, many investors take profits. This profit-taking is a natural part of an upward trend and does not necessarily signal the end of a bull market. Historically, such phases have not always marked the end of a cycle. A notable example is Bitcoin’s strong rise after the crash during the Covid pandemic, which was also accompanied by profit-taking, without ending the bull market.

Long-Term Holders Signal Further Potential

Looking at the behavior of long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH), it appears that the market top may not have been reached yet. The so-called “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (SOPR) indicator, which measures the ratio of profits to losses of holders, has not yet crossed the critical threshold that marked the end of a bull market in previous cycles. This suggests that there may still be further upside potential.

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Impact of the Bitcoin Halving

The Bitcoin halving, which occurs approximately every four years, has often triggered a price rally in the past. This time, the halving could have a similar effect. In previous cycles, the halving led to a significant price increase, and many market participants expect this to happen again in this cycle. However, the market dynamics have changed due to factors like the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, which could influence price developments.

Our Assessment

Although profit-taking is currently happening, indicators suggest that the Bitcoin bull market is not over yet. The resistance at $63,900 is a critical point to watch. Long-term holders continue to signal confidence in the market, and the upcoming halving could provide additional momentum. However, investors should remain cautious and closely monitor market movements.

Sources

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