Bitcoin Shows Bullish Trend as Reserves Hit Record Low
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin has significantly lost its correlation to gold – current value: -0.54.
- Bitcoin reserves on exchanges are at an all-time low – around 2.43 million BTC.
- Strong buying activity and declining whale transactions suggest long-term holding.
- These developments could pave the way for further price increases.
Bitcoin and Gold: Is an Old Relationship Breaking Apart?
For a long time, Bitcoin was considered the digital equivalent of gold – a so-called “store of value.” But recent data shows this connection is weakening. According to analytics platform Glassnode, the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold stands at -0.54. That’s the lowest level since February 2025. A negative correlation means that the prices of the two assets are moving in opposite directions.
What Does This Mean for You as an Investor?
A decreasing correlation can present opportunities. If Bitcoin acts independently of gold, new market dynamics may take hold. Historically, a similar development at the end of 2024 led to a significant increase in Bitcoin’s price, while gold simultaneously lost value. Such movements indicate that Bitcoin is increasingly being seen as an independent investment vehicle – detached from traditional markets.
Liquidity: Limited Supply Meets Rising Demand
Two key metrics provide insight into market dynamics: “Exchange Reserve” and “Exchange Netflow.” Exchange Reserve measures how much Bitcoin is available on centralized exchanges. Currently, this figure stands at about 2.43 million BTC – a new all-time low. Fewer available coins mean that many investors prefer to hold their Bitcoin rather than sell it.
Exchange Netflow shows whether more Bitcoin is being bought or sold. At the moment, buying activity is dominant – evident from the mostly red bars in the chart. This trend points to continued strong demand, while supply is decreasing. This could further support the price.
Whales Staying Quiet – A Sign of Stability?
Large Bitcoin holders, known as whales, have significantly reduced their activity on exchanges. Over the past 24 hours, the transaction volume of this group has dropped to a new low. This suggests that many whales are not moving their holdings – they appear to be focused on long-term holding.
This restraint aligns with declining exchange reserves. When major market participants are not selling but instead securing their coins in private wallets, it creates additional upward price pressure. At the same time, short-term volatility decreases.
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What Could Happen Next?
The combination of low correlation with gold, limited liquidity, strong demand, and calm large investors creates an environment that supports further price growth. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could break out of its current sideways movement above the $100,000 mark and aim for new all-time highs.
Our Assessment
The decoupling from gold is a significant signal of the Bitcoin market’s maturation. Investors should closely monitor this development. Declining exchange reserves and strong buying activity point to confidence and long-term outlooks. Short-term pullbacks are possible, but the fundamentals suggest a stable upward trend. Those already invested should remain calm. Those looking to enter the market will find the current environment interesting.
Sources
- Glassnode
- CryptoQuant
- TradingView
| Symbol | BTC |
| Coin type | Alt Coin |
| Transaction Speed | Slow |
| Pros |
|
| Cons |
|
| Further practical applications | |
| Price | 105709 |
| 24h % | 3.70 % |
| 7d % | 0.71 % |
| 30d % | -1.57 % |
| 60d % | 10.69 % |
| 1y % | 72.49 % |
| Market Cap | $2,101,538,904,086.00 |
| Max. Supply | 21,000,000.00 |
| Official Links | Website | Whitepaper | Source Code |
| Socials | Reddit | X | Message Board |
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