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Circle Stock Rebounds 150% as USDC Supply Hits Record $79B

Circle Stock Jumps 150% From February Low as USDC Supply Reaches Record $79B

Key Takeaways

• Circle Internet Group stock (CRCL) has risen more than 150% from its February low of $49.9, closing at $125.83 on March 17.
• The stock had previously fallen 83% from $298 to $49 after IPO momentum faded and the crypto market declined.
• USDC supply increased from about $70B in February to a record $79B, a 13% rise in two months.
• Analysts cite growing USDC adoption and developments around AI agentic payments as key drivers behind the recovery.
• Despite the rebound, Wall Street consensus currently rates CRCL as a HOLD, with some price targets at $145.

CRCL Rebounds Sharply After Late 2025 Sell Off

Circle Internet Group shares have staged a significant recovery in recent weeks. After touching a low of $49.9 in February, CRCL has climbed more than 150%, reaching $125.83 at the close on March 17. On that day alone, the stock gained an additional 9%.

The rally follows a steep decline in late 2025 and early 2026. After an initial surge tied to its public listing, CRCL fell 83%, dropping from $298 to $49 as broader crypto markets weakened and IPO enthusiasm faded.

The latest move effectively reverses the losses recorded in the first quarter of 2026. Market data shows that reclaiming the $125 to $160 range would erase most of the stock’s losses from the second half of 2025.

USDC Supply Expands to Record $79B

Analysts point to the growth of Circle’s stablecoin, USDC, as a central factor behind the stock’s recovery. According to Jon Ma, founder of crypto analytics platform Artemis, USDC adoption has been a key catalyst in the first quarter rebound.

In February, when CRCL traded near $50, USDC supply stood at roughly $70B. It has since increased to $79B, marking a 13% expansion in two months and setting a new all time high.

Ma highlighted that at the time of the February dip, overall stablecoin supply was $73B, reflecting 25% year over year growth. He described the $50 level as an evident buy zone, referencing the underlying growth in stablecoin issuance.

At the network level, more than 10% of total USDC supply is concentrated on Solana. Other trading platforms have also recorded notable increases. Hyperliquid, for example, has seen 155% growth in USDC supply over the past month.

Stablecoin Growth Occurs Amid Broader Crypto Contraction

The expansion of USDC has taken place despite a broader contraction in crypto trading activity. Analysts interpret this as a sign that stablecoin usage is decoupling from general market trends.

While Bitcoin’s recovery has supported several crypto related equities, including Robinhood, Coinbase, and Strategy, USDC supply growth has continued even as overall trading volumes have softened. This divergence has drawn attention to stablecoin adoption as a separate structural driver.

In parallel with the stock move, other crypto equities have also advanced. Over the past month, Strategy gained 14%, while Coinbase recovered 22%. On a year to date basis, however, CRCL has outperformed these peers despite its earlier drawdown.

AI Agentic Payments Highlighted as Long Term Theme

Another factor cited in the recent analysis is the role of AI driven payments. Ma referenced a report by Citrini Research that identified agentic payments as a potential winner by 2028. The report theorizes that AI agents could transact on stablecoin infrastructure and bypass traditional intermediaries.

Circle has already positioned itself around AI agentic payment systems. The company is also exploring scenarios in which stablecoins could replace the current global foreign exchange market structure.

These developments have been presented as part of the broader narrative supporting USDC adoption. For investors, they provide additional context for the recent increase in stablecoin supply and the associated stock performance.

Analyst Ratings and Price Targets Remain Cautious

Despite the 150% rebound from February lows, Wall Street consensus currently rates CRCL as a HOLD. Some analysts project a price target of $145.

This suggests that while the recovery has been significant, expectations for further upside remain measured relative to the stock’s earlier peak of $298. The recent rally has restored much of the ground lost in early 2026, but the shares remain well below their post IPO highs.

Our Assessment

CRCL has recovered more than 150% from its February low, driven in part by a 13% increase in USDC supply to a record $79B. Analysts link the rebound to expanding stablecoin adoption and developments around AI agentic payments. While other crypto stocks have also benefited from Bitcoin’s recovery, CRCL has outperformed peers on a year to date basis. Current analyst consensus stands at HOLD, with price targets around $145 as the stock trades near $125.83.