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US Lawmaker Proposes Ban on House Members Using Prediction Markets

US Lawmaker Proposes Ban on House Members Using Prediction Markets – New Bill Targets Lawmakers’ Financial Participation

Key Takeaways

• US Representative Bryan Steil introduced the Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act to bar House members and their families from participating in prediction markets.
• The proposal would apply to members of the House, their spouses, and dependent children.
• Violations would trigger a fine of at least $2,000 or 10% of the transaction value, plus any net gains.
• The Senate has already unanimously approved a similar ban for senators and staff.
• Recent investigations involving Polymarket and Kalshi have increased scrutiny of prediction market trading.

Proposed House Ban Targets Lawmakers and Immediate Family

US Representative Bryan Steil, a Republican from Wisconsin and chairman of the House Administration Committee, has introduced legislation that would prohibit members of the US House of Representatives from participating in prediction markets. The proposed bill, titled the Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act, would also extend to spouses and dependent children.

Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to trade contracts linked to the outcome of political, economic, and other real world events. Participants can buy and sell positions based on whether they believe a specific event will occur.

Steil stated that lawmakers should not be in a position to profit from insider information. According to his statement, the legislation aims to ensure that members of Congress focus on writing policy rather than trading on its potential outcomes.

If enacted, the bill would require any member found in violation to pay a fine equal to the greater of $2,000 or 10% of the value of the transaction. In addition, violators would have to forfeit any net gains derived from the transaction. The legislation would also prohibit lawmakers from using official office funds or campaign funds to cover penalties.

Senate Action and House Deliberations

The House proposal follows earlier action in the Senate. In April, senators unanimously approved a measure banning senators and Senate staff from participating in prediction markets.

Shortly after the Senate vote, US Representative Ashley Hinson, a Republican from Iowa, introduced legislation to amend House rules and impose a similar prohibition in the House. She urged House leadership to bring the measure to the floor without delay.

However, House Republicans did not immediately advance a chamber wide ban. Speaker Mike Johnson stated that he wanted to ensure consensus before moving forward. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise pointed to Steil’s legislative effort and emphasized that committees are in place to address such matters thoroughly.

Notably, the proposed House legislation does not extend to congressional staff. Some lawmakers have independently barred their staff from wagering on prediction markets, but no uniform House wide staff prohibition has been enacted under Steil’s bill.

Increased Scrutiny of Prediction Markets

The legislative push comes amid growing scrutiny of prediction markets and their potential use by individuals with access to sensitive information.

Earlier this year, federal authorities charged a US soldier with allegedly using confidential information to trade on the capture of then Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro on Polymarket. The case drew attention to the possibility that non public information could be used to gain an advantage in event based markets.

In a separate matter, trading activity linked to former Republican congressman George Santos was referred to federal authorities. The case involved bets placed on Kalshi regarding whether Santos would attend President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address.

According to reports from NPR and CNN cited in the source material, Kalshi identified suspicious trading activity in the relevant market. The company determined that the account belonged to Santos, froze the account, and referred the matter to both the US Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

These cases have contributed to heightened attention from lawmakers and regulators toward the prediction market sector, particularly where trading may intersect with political events and public office.

Implications for Prediction Market Platforms

Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket operate markets tied to a wide range of outcomes, including elections, legislative decisions, and geopolitical developments. The industry has experienced significant growth in what has been described as a more favorable regulatory environment under President Donald Trump.

At the same time, increased participation and visibility have led to additional oversight and political debate. The proposed House legislation does not target the platforms themselves. Instead, it focuses on restricting participation by elected officials and their immediate families.

For users of prediction markets, including those active in crypto based platforms, the proposal signals ongoing regulatory and political attention to how these markets function and who may participate. While the bill addresses only House members and their families, it reflects broader concerns about conflicts of interest and the use of non public information in event driven trading.

Our Assessment

The introduction of the Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act marks a further step by US lawmakers to limit elected officials’ participation in prediction markets. Following the Senate’s unanimous approval of a similar ban, the House is now considering whether to impose comparable restrictions on its members and their families. Recent investigations involving Polymarket and Kalshi have intensified scrutiny of event based trading, placing prediction markets more firmly within the focus of congressional and regulatory oversight.