Bitcoin Predicted to Consolidate Before Hitting New High

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The Essentials in Brief

Bitcoin has recently stabilized at a rate of 68,000 dollars but could fall to 65,000 dollars before reaching a new all-time high (ATH). This forecast is based on current on-chain metrics and investor behavior, indicating an impending consolidation phase. Despite a decrease in active addresses, the price of Bitcoin remains relatively stable, often signaling an impending bull phase.

On-Chain Metrics and Investor Behaviour

The current NVT ratio (Network Value to Transactions Ratio) suggests that the price of Bitcoin may be overvalued compared to the economic activity on its blockchain. This could lead to further consolidation as the market seeks a balance between price levels and transaction volume. The HODL Waves chart shows a historical holding pattern, suggesting that Bitcoin is likely to experience a price stabilization as long-term holders wait for higher valuations.

Technical Analysis and Resistance Levels

Bitcoin’s trading volume has increased by 21.14%, indicating an increase in trader activity and a strong bullish sentiment. However, the slight decrease in open interest by 0.12% indicates some restraint among traders. In the options market, there has been a decrease in trading volume by 39.73%, despite a slight increase in open interest by 2.18%. The long/short ratios on major platforms like Binance and OKX show a dominance of long positions, indicating a generally bullish outlook among traders.

Price Development and Possible Scenarios

If the support at 66,800 dollars is broken, a correction towards 65,000 dollars could occur, which would also provide a stronger basis for the next upward trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 46, which does not indicate overbought or oversold conditions and supports the consolidation phase. A successful breakthrough above the 70,000-dollar mark would suggest that Bitcoin is trying to reach its all-time high of around 73,800 dollars.

Our Assessment

The current market situation and the analyzed on-chain data suggest that Bitcoin could go through a consolidation phase before another upward movement. Long-term investors could see this as an opportunity to strengthen their positions, while new investors should prepare for possible entry points. Despite short-term uncertainties, the long-term perspective for Bitcoin remains positive, especially considering the increasing acceptance and growing interest in cryptocurrencies.

Sources

– Glassnode
– Coinglass
– TradingView

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