Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Predicts 2025 Peak: Investment Insights
Bitcoin Cycle: Forecast for the Next Peak in 2024
Bitcoin took 1435 days to go from the peak of the 2017 cycle to the 2021 peak. Is another peak imminent? Forecasts indicate that liquidity could reach a local peak in September 2025. But what drives the Bitcoin cycle and how predictable is it really?
The Role of Liquidity in the Four-Year Cycle
Bitcoin has moved in about four cycles, each new cycle marking a new all-time high for prices. These cycles are driven by available liquidity. When the economy is in a difficult situation, it is harder to secure money for investments. This means that safer assets are in demand. Conversely, when liquidity is abundant, the public is more willing to dip their toes into riskier asset classes, including crypto.
The Impact of Halving on the Bitcoin Cycle
Enthusiastic crypto users would immediately respond that the Bitcoin halving cycle is clocked on a four-year clock. The mining difficulty and block time are set so that mining rewards are halved approximately every four years. Each additional miner in the network sees the hash rate and security increase, but the block time is repeatedly adjusted. To justify the mining costs, the Bitcoin price must rise, and the halving exerts even more upward pressure.
Forecast for the Next Cycle Peak
The data show that the peak of the next cycle will be reached in the 4th quarter of 2025, around September. This coincides well with a previous, fun experiment that AMBCrypto conducted with the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart. It was also found that Bitcoin took almost three years to go from the lows in December 2018 at $3.1k to the high in November 2021 of $69k. Bitcoin took 1435 days to go from the peak of the 2017 cycle to the 2021 peak. This corresponds to 47.17 months, which is just short of the index’s 65-month cycle.
The increase in institutional investors has long-term increased the demand for BTC, but has it also extended the approximately three years that BTC needed in the previous cycle to go from bottom to top? Only time will give us the final answer. However, it is certain that the volatility and risk of Bitcoin and the entire crypto market will continue to be high. Therefore, it is important to stay well informed and make wise investment decisions.
Sources: CrossBorder Capital, CryptoQuant
|Percent Change 24h