Bitcoin Peak Expected in Sep 2025 Amid Rising Demand and Liquidity

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Bitcoin Cycle: When is the next peak?

Bitcoin took 1435 days to go from the peak of the 2017 cycle to the 2021 peak. Will the next peak come soon? Forecasts show that liquidity could reach a local peak in September 2025. But why do we have these cycles and are they predictable?

The four-year clock of the Bitcoin halving cycle

Many crypto users would immediately respond that the Bitcoin halving cycle is based on a four-year clock. The mining difficulty and block time are adjusted so that mining rewards are halved about every four years. Each additional miner in the network increases the hash rate and security, but the block time is constantly adjusted. To justify the mining costs, the Bitcoin price must rise and the halving puts even more upward pressure.

The risks and nuances

Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market represent an extremely volatile asset class. They come with high risk. Fraud, security (individual or even exchanges, all are susceptible to hackers), regulatory oversight, and volatility are just some of them.

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Liquidity as a key component

When the economy is in a difficult situation, it is harder to secure funds for investments. This means that safer assets are in demand. Conversely, when liquidity is abundant, the public is more willing to dip their toes into riskier asset classes, with crypto being one of them.

The Global Liquidity Index (GLI)

The GLI ranges from 0-100 and captures the global liquidity cycle as a normalized index. The COVID-19 pandemic forced monetary policy to lower the cost of borrowing and increase quantitative easing. This led to a rise in inflation, which the US Federal Reserve, for example, has been fighting against with interest rate hikes for the past two years. From 2024 onwards, their stance is that interest rates are unlikely to be raised any further.

Is the peak of the Bitcoin cycle near?

The data shows that the peak of the next cycle will be in the 4th quarter of 2025, around September. This fits well with a previous, fun experiment that AMBCrypto conducted with the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart. We also found that Bitcoin took almost three years to go from the lows in December 2018 at $3.1k to the high in November 2021 of $69k. Bitcoin took 1435 days to go from the peak of the 2017 cycle to the 2021 peak. This corresponds to 47.17 months, which is less than the 65-month cycle of the index.

The role of institutional investors

The influx of institutional investors has increased the demand for BTC in the long term, but has it also extended the roughly three years that BTC took in the previous cycle to go from bottom to top? Only time will give the final answer.

Source: AMBCrypto, CrossBorder Capital, CryptoQuant

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I have enjoyed following the international iGaming industry since my first encounter at the age of 23. Fascinated by its diversity and complexity, I was hooked and have never left the industry since. Here at KC, I am a proud member of the founding team as well as the content team. We use everyone's knowledge to find every possible flaw in a casino so you can relax and play.
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Last update: 19. February 2024

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