Bitcoin Volatility Predicted Despite Market Stability Indicators

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The Essentials at a Glance

Bitcoin’s (BTC) volatility may be imminent, as recent on-chain data suggest. However, while indicators for short-term holders suggest increased market movement, technical analysis tools paint a different picture. Here, you will learn what is happening behind the scenes of Bitcoin price movements and whether you should believe the recent warning signals.

A Look at the On-Chain Data

Recent analysis from CryptoQuant shows an increase in the issued outputs of Bitcoin investors who have held their coins between one and twelve months. This could suggest an impending price movement, as such movements often coincide with an increase in market volatility. An increase in issued outputs by short-term holders typically indicates increased selling activity and thus potential price movements.

Technical Indicators Contradict

Despite the on-chain hints of possible volatility, technical indicators suggest that the risk of significant short-term price fluctuations remains low. The Average True Range (ATR), a measure of the average price range, has been showing a steady decline since April 19, suggesting a reduction in market volatility. Similarly, the decline in Chaikin volatility, an indicator of the range of price fluctuations, confirms that the market is becoming less volatile. Additionally, a flat Bollinger Bandwidth (BBW) indicates that Bitcoin’s price movements are stable and are moving within a narrow range.

The Current Market Situation

At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at a price of $64,241, with an increase of 5% in the last seven days according to CoinMarketCap. This data underscores that despite the signs of a possible increase in volatility through on-chain metrics, the technical indicators and the current market trend speak a different language.

Our Assessment

While on-chain data provides valuable insights into the behavior of cryptocurrency investors, it is important to consider this information in context with technical analysis tools. The current indicators suggest that despite the potential warning signals for impending volatility, the immediate risk of significant price fluctuations remains low. However, investors should remain vigilant and keep an eye on both data sources to make informed decisions.

Sources: CryptoQuant, CoinMarketCap

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