BitMEX Founder Updates Bitcoin Forecast Amid Central Bank Moves

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The Essentials in Brief

Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, has adjusted his forecast for Bitcoin and now expects a rise after central banks have started to cut interest rates. This development could lead Bitcoin out of a months-long sideways movement. Particularly in focus is the upcoming meeting of the US Federal Reserve on June 12, which may determine the next direction for the Bitcoin price.

Interest Rate Cuts as a Catalyst for Bitcoin

Arthur Hayes has updated his Bitcoin forecast after both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Canada (BOC) have cut their interest rates. He sees this as the start of a central bank easing cycle, which could ultimately also force the USA to take similar steps. Hayes advises investing in Bitcoin and then in other cryptocurrencies, as the macroeconomic landscape has changed.

Key Macroeconomic Events in Focus

The Bitcoin price has held above 70,000 US dollars in recent days and could approach the 72,000 US dollar mark if the upcoming macroeconomic events turn out positive. Market observers believe that the decision of the US Federal Reserve next week will play a crucial role in the price direction of Bitcoin. A weak jobs report or a dovish stance by the Fed could reinforce expectations of interest rate cuts in July.

Reaction to Global Currency Movements

Hayes also commented on Japan’s recent actions to sell US Treasury bonds to support the value of the yen, pointing out that this could lead to an expansion of the money supply in the USA, which in turn would benefit Bitcoin and other risk assets. The rise in open interest (OI) for Bitcoin to a record high underscores the bullish expectations for the cryptocurrency.

Our Assessment

The recent interest rate cuts by major central banks and the upcoming decision of the US Federal Reserve could be decisive factors for the short-term price development of Bitcoin. Arthur Hayes’ adjusted forecast reflects an optimistic view of the crypto market, based on the assumption that an easing of monetary policy traditionally has positive effects on riskier assets like Bitcoin. Investors should closely monitor macroeconomic developments as they are likely to have a significant impact on price movements in the coming weeks.

Sources: Coinglass

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