Dogecoin Shows Bearish Trend, Faces Potential 12%-22% Loss

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Caution in DOGE Trading: A Double-Digit Price Drop Looms

The cryptocurrency Dogecoin (DOGE) currently shows a bearish trend, despite a recent increase of 16%. The mood in the futures market is rather negative after the losses of the last ten days. It seems that DOGE is showing strong signs of a bearish trend reversal. Its market structure and dynamics are bearish and losses of 12%-22% seem likely due to the price actions of the last ten days.

False Information and Social Metrics

An unfounded claim that Kabuso, the mascot of Dogecoin, died on January 10 caused prices to climb to $0.083. However, this information was refuted and the social metrics of the Meme-Coin were highlighted. The volatility was not entirely unexpected.

The 12-hour price chart shows that the $0.085 region was a strong resistance zone in mid-November. In early December, this zone turned into a support zone and was defended for a month. However, the intense selling on January 3rd turned this region back into a supply zone. It was tested again as resistance on January 11th. The bulls tried to push the prices above $0.087, but failed.

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Market Indicators and Future Forecasts

The market structure and dynamics based on the RSI showed that the bears dominate. On the other hand, the OBV (On-Balance Volume) has slightly increased over the last week. Despite the downward trend of the last two weeks, it has not taken a major hit. This indicates that the selling volume was not high. However, traders can expect further losses.

The Fibonacci levels showed that the 61.8% level served as resistance during the attempted rally. The subsequent rejection means that the 23.6% downward extension level is the next target.

Spot Purchase and Future Prospects

Since January 3rd, the open interest behind DOGE contracts has dropped from $400 million to $282 million. This decline, combined with the price drop, indicates a bearish sentiment and discourages long positions in the futures market.

However, since January 9th, the Spot-CVD has seen a slight upward trend. This is a sign of demand. If buyers can maintain this, it could tempt futures traders to enter the market and push DOGE upwards. The $0.08188 and $0.0835 levels are key resistances in the shorter time frames.


The information provided does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or any other type of advice and is solely the opinion of the author.

Sources: TradingView, Coinalyze

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