Bitcoin Open Interest Hints at New Uptrend
Key Takeaways
- The Open Interest Delta in Bitcoin shows a pattern similar to the 2024 bull run.
- A decline in the 180-day delta could indicate a new accumulation phase.
- Large investors (so-called whales) are currently acting more cautiously than in previous cycles.
What Is the Open Interest Delta?
Open Interest (OI) refers to the total number of open positions in Bitcoin derivatives such as futures or options. The delta value measures the change in these open positions over a specific period. A positive delta indicates growing interest and increasing leverage, while a negative delta suggests declining positions or liquidations.
Is the 2024 Pattern Repeating?
Current data suggests that the 30-day average of the Open Interest Delta is reaching similar levels to those seen in early 2024—just before Bitcoin surged above USD 73,000. This pattern indicates that the market may once again be in the early stages of a potential upward trend.
Two Phases in the Open Interest Cycle
Analysts divide the OI cycle into two phases:
- Phase 1: Rapid increase in open positions, usually with a positive delta. This points to growing optimism and rising leverage.
- Phase 2: Reduction in positions, turning the delta negative. This is often followed by consolidation or a correction.
According to data from Alphractal, we are currently at the beginning of Phase 1 again. Market participant behaviour resembles the start of previous bull runs.
What Does the 180-Day Delta Say?
The longer-term 180-day delta offers additional insights. In the past, sharp declines in this indicator often coincided with market lows. Such movements suggest that over-leveraged long positions were liquidated—a typical sign of the start of a new accumulation phase.
Currently, the 180-day delta is just above zero. If it turns negative, it could signal that institutional investors are beginning to re-enter the market more actively.
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Behaviour of Bitcoin Whales
In previous upward phases—such as in October 2023 and early 2024—Open Interest rose sharply. This indicated aggressive behaviour by large market players. Currently, however, that increase is more moderate. This suggests that whales are acting more cautiously and are building their positions strategically.
This cautious approach may indicate that the market is in a transitional phase. Such phases are often precursors to larger moves.
Our Assessment
Current data on the Open Interest Delta shows parallels to previous upward movements in Bitcoin. The 180-day delta is particularly noteworthy: a decline could signal a new accumulation phase—a typical pattern before significant price increases.
Even though market participants are currently more cautious, there are many signs that a new trend is forming. Those who invest in cryptocurrencies or are considering it should monitor these developments closely. The Open Interest Delta is a valuable tool for identifying market sentiment and potential turning points early.
| Symbol | BTC |
| Coin type | Alt Coin |
| Transaction Speed | Slow |
| Pros |
|
| Cons |
|
| Further practical applications | |
| Price | 105795 |
| 24h % | 2.42 % |
| 7d % | 1.64 % |
| 30d % | 25.28 % |
| 60d % | 21.86 % |
| 1y % | 57.93 % |
| Market Cap | $2,103,309,552,935.00 |
| Max. Supply | 21,000,000.00 |
| Official Links | Website | Whitepaper | Source Code |
| Socials | Reddit | X | Message Board |
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