Bitcoin Hits $97K Amid U.S.-China Trade Talk Hopes
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin (BTC) briefly reached 97,000 USD ahead of scheduled trade talks between the U.S. and China.
- The meeting is set to take place from May 9 to 12 in Switzerland – with participation from high-level officials from both countries.
- The discussions could ease ongoing trade tensions and potentially impact the crypto markets.
- Options traders are increasingly betting on rising prices – with up to a 28% probability of BTC reaching 110,000 USD in June.
Background: Trade Conflict Weighs on Markets
Since April 2025, new tariffs have strained economic relations between the U.S. and China. President Trump raised import duties on Chinese goods to 145%. China responded with retaliatory tariffs of 125% on U.S. products. This escalation caused uncertainty in financial markets – Bitcoin was also affected. The price dropped from 88,000 to 74,500 USD.
BTC Recovers Ahead of Summit
At the end of April, the Bitcoin price stabilized as early signs pointed to a possible agreement. The announcement of a meeting between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Switzerland sparked renewed optimism. As a result, BTC climbed back to around 96,000 USD.
Market Sentiment: Cautious Optimism
Despite the price rally, market sentiment remains cautious. On the prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of a trade deal before June was under 30%. This indicates that many do not expect a quick breakthrough.
Options Market Bets on Rising Prices
However, a clear trend is emerging in the options market: traders are increasingly buying call options – essentially bets on rising prices. The so-called 25-Delta Risk Reversal (25RR), an indicator of market sentiment, is positive for May and June. On the Deribit platform, traders see a 16% chance that BTC will reach 110,000 USD in May. For June, that probability rises to 28%.
Macroeconomic Factors in Focus
The Bitcoin Macro Index – an indicator of the interplay between economic data and Bitcoin performance – shows a positive trend. This suggests that the macroeconomic environment is improving. If the meeting in Switzerland delivers concrete progress, it could further boost the BTC price. Conversely, negative news from the talks could quickly halt the recovery.
Our Assessment
The planned U.S.-China talks are a key factor for Bitcoin’s short-term development. You should closely monitor the outcomes. A deal could push BTC past the 100,000 USD mark. If no breakthrough is achieved, renewed volatility is likely. Currently, the market shows cautious optimism – but remains unconvinced. For traders and investors, this means: recognize opportunities, but don’t underestimate the risks.
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Sources
- Capriole Investment
- Polymarket
- Deribit
| Symbol | BTC |
| Coin type | Alt Coin |
| Transaction Speed | Slow |
| Pros |
|
| Cons |
|
| Further practical applications | |
| Price | 101440 |
| 24h % | 4.95 % |
| 7d % | 4.39 % |
| 30d % | 31.15 % |
| 60d % | 22.87 % |
| 1y % | 62.75 % |
| Market Cap | $2,013,866,348,553.00 |
| Max. Supply | 21,000,000.00 |
| Official Links | Website | Whitepaper | Source Code |
| Socials | Reddit | X | Message Board |
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