Bitcoin Nears Key Support Amid High Leverage Risks
Key Takeaways
- The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of Bitcoin currently sits at approximately USD 93,460.
- A sustained drop below this level could trigger a new wave of selling—similar to what occurred in 2022.
- Open Interest (OI) in the derivatives market remains high at over USD 64 billion—a potential risk factor.
- Rising liquidations could create a domino effect and put significant pressure on the Bitcoin price.
Why the USD 93,000 Level Is Crucial
The so-called Short-Term Holder Cost Basis refers to the average purchase price of Bitcoin investors who acquired their coins within the last 155 days. Currently, this value is around USD 93,460. Historically, this has been a critical level: if the price falls below it, many of these investors enter the loss zone.
In the past, this often led to panic selling. This pattern was particularly evident during the 2022 bear market. At that time, the Bitcoin price repeatedly fell below the respective STH cost basis—resulting in significant price declines.
Looking Back: How the 2022 Crash Unfolded
In May 2022, Bitcoin was trading around USD 30,000, while the STH cost average was at USD 34,000. The result: selling pressure increased. In June, the price dropped further to USD 25,000, even though the STH basis was still at USD 32,000. By September, Bitcoin had fallen below the USD 19,000 mark, while STHs had entered the market at an average of USD 27,000.
Each time the price dropped below the STH value, it was followed by sharp declines, liquidations, and a self-reinforcing downward trend.
Open Interest as a Risk Factor
Another important indicator is Open Interest (OI). It shows how many open positions exist in Bitcoin derivatives—such as futures and options that have not yet been closed. Currently, OI stands at approximately USD 64.82 billion. This is the same level seen when Bitcoin was on the verge of breaking the USD 100,000 mark.
High OI can be a sign of market interest—but also of excessive leverage. If the price drops, many of these positions risk liquidation. This can trigger a chain reaction, with more selling leading to further liquidations.
You should read that too:
-
Asian Slots – The Best Asia-Themed Online Slot GamesReading time: ~ 3 minutes
-
Africa Slots: Best African-Themed Slot Machines
Reading time: ~ 3 minutes
-
Gold Slots – Best Slot Machines With a Gold Theme
Reading time: ~ 3 minutes
-
Versus Odds B.V. Casinos
Reading time: ~ 3 minutes
-
Food and Drink Slots: The Best Slot Games Inspired by Culinary Delights
Reading time: ~ 3 minutes
A similar scenario played out in 2022: back then, OI remained around USD 20 billion even as the price fell from USD 50,000 to USD 16,000. The result was a massive wave of liquidations.
What This Means for You
If Bitcoin falls below the USD 93,000 mark again, it could signal the start of a new downward movement. Short-term investors who bought in near this price level may come under pressure and start selling. At the same time, high Open Interest increases the risk of a liquidation spiral.
Keep an eye on these two key metrics:
- STH Cost Basis: Currently at USD 93,460
- Open Interest: Around USD 64.82 billion
A drop below the STH value combined with high OI can be a warning sign. It suggests a potential market correction—similar to what happened in 2022.
Our Assessment
Current market conditions show parallels to the 2022 bear market. The short-term holder cost basis and high Open Interest are two key risk factors. If the Bitcoin price falls below USD 93,000, increased volatility is likely. For you as an investor, that means: monitor price developments closely and be prepared for rapid market movements.
Long-term investors should not be unsettled by short-term fluctuations. However, those trading with leverage or aiming for short-term gains should clearly assess the risks and consider setting stop-loss levels.
Sources
- Glassnode
- Coinglass
| Symbol | BTC |
| Coin type | Alt Coin |
| Transaction Speed | Slow |
| Pros |
|
| Cons |
|
| Further practical applications | |
| Price | $94,790.00 |
| 24h % | -0.67 % |
| 7d % | 0.44 % |
| 30d % | 14.12 % |
| 60d % | 7.23 % |
| 1y % | 48.28 % |
| Market Cap | $1,882,523,262,295.00 |
| Max. Supply | 21,000,000.00 |
| Official Links | Website | Whitepaper | Source Code |
| Socials | Reddit | X | Message Board |
Advertising transparency