Bitcoin Bull Run Nears Peak, Growth Still Possible
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin could reach its next cycle peak in fall 2025.
- On-chain data suggests we are in a late phase of the bull market.
- Large investors are taking partial profits without fully exiting the market.
- The market currently shows no signs of panic selling.
- Technical indicators such as MRPR and VDD support the thesis of a later peak.
Bitcoin Cycles: Why Fall 2025 Could Be Critical
Bitcoin typically goes through four-year market cycles closely tied to the so-called halving event. During halving, the reward for mining new blocks is cut in half — a process that reduces supply and has historically led to price increases.
Analyses suggest that the current cycle could peak in fall 2025. This forecast is based on various on-chain indicators and market behaviour of both institutional and retail investors.
What Do the On-Chain Metrics Say?
One key indicator is the Market to Realized Price Ratio (MRPR), which measures how far the current price is above the average price paid by long-term holders. This value is currently rising, but has not yet reached the levels seen in past peaks.
Another important metric is “Value Days Destroyed” (VDD), which shows how many “old” coins are being moved. This value is also increasing, but has not entered extreme territory. This suggests a late, but not final, phase of the bull market.
Behaviour of Large Investors
According to data from Axel Adler Insights, large market participants are currently securing partial profits. This means they are selling a portion of their holdings while staying invested overall. This behaviour is typical of a market phase where valuations are high but further upside is still expected.
Derivatives Market and Whale Activity
Some large investors (“whales”) have recently suffered losses due to failed long and short positions. These failed trades became publicly known and sparked discussions on social media. At the same time, trading volume in the derivatives market remains high — a sign of active market participation.
You should read that too:
-
Asian Slots – The Best Asia-Themed Online Slot GamesReading time: ~ 3 minutes
-
Best Casino Alternatives for 2025
Reading time: ~ 3 minutes
-
Versus Odds B.V. Casinos
Reading time: ~ 3 minutes
-
The Best Jackpot Slots & Casinos 2025
Reading time: ~ 3 minutes
-
No Wagering Casino Bonuses 2025
Reading time: ~ 3 minutes
Exchange Data: No Signs of Panic Selling
Another positive signal is the consistently negative exchange netflow. This means more Bitcoin is being withdrawn from exchanges than deposited. This trend indicates accumulation — the building of positions — rather than short-term selling intentions.
At the same time, the “Taker Buy Sell Ratio” is declining. This indicator measures the ratio of aggressive buys to sells. A falling value suggests that more market participants are taking profits — a typical behaviour near all-time highs.
What Does This Mean for You?
If you’re invested in Bitcoin or considering it, now is a time for heightened awareness. The data shows that the market is in a late stage of the upswing. An immediate crash is unlikely, but profit-taking and increased volatility are possible.
Long-term investors could still benefit, provided they are aware of the risks. Short-term traders should closely monitor current signals and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Our Assessment
Current on-chain data and market movements point to a continued rise in Bitcoin prices over the coming months. A cycle peak in fall 2025 seems plausible, though not guaranteed. Key factors remain the behaviour of large investors, the macroeconomic environment, and the response to future halving events.
For you as an investor, this means: monitor the indicators, plan your entries and exits carefully, and stay flexible. The coming months could be crucial for the long-term development of your portfolio.
Sources
- Axel Adler Insights
- CryptoQuant Insights
| Symbol | BTC |
| Coin type | Alt Coin |
| Transaction Speed | Slow |
| Pros |
|
| Cons |
|
| Further practical applications | |
| Price | 108789 |
| 24h % | -0.13 % |
| 7d % | 1.82 % |
| 30d % | 16.24 % |
| 60d % | 29.76 % |
| 1y % | 58.43 % |
| Market Cap | $2,161,701,885,911.00 |
| Max. Supply | 21,000,000.00 |
| Official Links | Website | Whitepaper | Source Code |
| Socials | Reddit | X | Message Board |
Advertising transparency