Bitcoin Realized Cap Hits Record $890B Amid Surge
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin’s (BTC) realized cap reaches a new all-time high of USD 890.74 billion.
- Large investors (“whales”) increase their BTC inflows by over 949% within one week.
- Derivatives markets show rising activity – signalling speculative expectations.
- On-chain data such as the NVT and NVM ratios indicate weaker network activity.
- BTC approaches the psychological USD 100,000 mark – resistance remains strong.
Realized Cap at Record Level: What Does It Mean?
The so-called “realized cap” of Bitcoin represents the total value of all circulating coins, based on the price at their last movement. With a new peak of USD 890.74 billion, this figure shows that capital continues to flow into the market. This suggests investor confidence – both from long-term and short-term holders.
At the time of analysis, the BTC price stood at USD 99,755, an increase of 2.91% within 24 hours. This development signals a potential trend shift towards increased accumulation, especially during uncertain market phases.
Whales Are Back
Over the past seven days, the net inflow of large BTC holders has risen by 949.67%. Although the 30-day trend had fallen by over 90%, this short-term surge indicates that major investors are becoming active again. Capital is increasingly being withdrawn from exchanges – a sign that many are betting on long-term price increases rather than short-term selling.
Derivatives Markets Indicate Growing Risk Appetite
Activity in the Bitcoin derivatives space is also increasing. Futures trading volume rose by 8.01% to USD 104.94 billion. Open interest – the total value of all open contracts – increased by 7.58% to USD 68.87 billion. In the options market, volume grew by 18.14%, while open interest rose by 3.58%.
These figures show that many market participants are betting on strong price movements and are willing to take on higher risks. Combined with rising demand in the spot market, this could indicate an upcoming price shift.
On-Chain Data Shows Weakness
Despite positive signals from the derivatives sector, some on-chain metrics are showing weakness. The NVT ratio (Network Value to Transactions) has dropped by 2.81% to 26.91. This means that market value is rising faster than transaction volume – a sign of potentially overvalued prices.
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The NVM ratio (Network Value to Metcalfe) fell even more sharply by 44.49%, indicating lower network usage relative to market capitalization. The stock-to-flow ratio, which measures Bitcoin’s scarcity, also declined by 14.28%. These figures suggest that the network’s fundamental usage is currently not keeping pace with the price increase.
The USD 100,000 Mark in Focus
Bitcoin is on the verge of breaking through the psychologically significant USD 100,000 level. Technical indicators such as the Bollinger Bands show increased volatility. The Stochastic RSI – an indicator for overbought or oversold markets – is above 70, signalling that the market is overbought.
A breakout above the resistance at USD 101,175 could trigger a strong upward move. If this fails, a short-term correction is possible. The next daily closing prices will be crucial.
Our Assessment
The current market situation presents a mixed picture. On one side, there is strong capital inflow, particularly from whales and derivatives traders. These groups are betting on rising prices and are positioning themselves accordingly. On the other side, fundamental network data is weakening. This suggests that the current price increase is not fully supported by usage and activity within the network.
Whether Bitcoin can sustainably break through the USD 100,000 mark depends heavily on the further development of on-chain data. In the short term, a breakout is possible, but in the long term, stronger network usage will be necessary to maintain this level.
Sources
- CryptoQuant
- IntoTheBlock
- CoinGlass
- TradingView
| Symbol | BTC |
| Coin type | Alt Coin |
| Transaction Speed | Slow |
| Pros |
|
| Cons |
|
| Further practical applications | |
| Price | 102579 |
| 24h % | 3.86 % |
| 7d % | 5.69 % |
| 30d % | 35.58 % |
| 60d % | 24.86 % |
| 1y % | 66.40 % |
| Market Cap | $2,037,943,127,613.00 |
| Max. Supply | 21,000,000.00 |
| Official Links | Website | Whitepaper | Source Code |
| Socials | Reddit | X | Message Board |
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