Bitcoin’s Rise to $45,000 Hinges on Short-term Holders, Says Analyst

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Bitcoin on the way to $45,000?

The question of whether Bitcoin will reach the $45,000 mark largely depends on short-term holders. According to an analysis by Victor Olanrewaju, a journalist at AMBCrypto, Bitcoin could have a chance to reach $45,000 if the short-term holder supply continues to increase.

Historical data as an indicator

Adler Jr., a data analyst and research expert, based his conclusions on historical data from the one-week to 12-month Bitcoin supply rate. The chart shared by Adler shows that short-term holders (STH) began to accumulate around February at $18,000. However, it was not until Bitcoin reached $28,000 that these holders began to realize profits.

The outlook for Bitcoin

To assess the potential for Bitcoin to reach the price by the end of the year, AMBCrypto reviewed the Bitcoin supply in profit, which was at 83.13% at press time, according to CryptoQuant. This value has been dropping since November 25, when it was at 84.36%. An increasing trend of this metric means that investors are starting to realize profits. This could lead to selling pressure, which could trigger a decline in the Bitcoin price.

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Technical outlook and buying opportunities

From a technical perspective, the H4 chart of BTC/USD showed that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) had dropped to 46.23. This suggests that sellers are dominating the market. It is therefore unlikely that BTC will reclaim the $38,000. However, if the RSI drops below 40.00, market participants could see this as an opportunity to buy Bitcoin at a discounted price.

Impact on the portfolio

Another noteworthy indicator is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). The SOPR shows the degree of realized profits from both long-term holders (LTH) and STH. Higher values of the ratio indicate that higher profits were spent by LTH than by STH. If this is the case, it is a sign of a local market high. If it is the other way around, it means that a coin has the potential for more uptrend.

So, if the short-term holders maintain their supply and the profit ratio, BTC could soon trend upwards.

Sources: AMBCrypto, CryptoQuant, TradingView

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