Bitcoin Tops $103K Amid Caution and Whale Sell-Off
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin (BTC) reaches USD 103,000, but long-term investors remain cautious.
- Whales sell over 30,000 BTC – a sign of lacking confidence in short-term gains.
- Derivatives markets show activity, but little conviction.
- Stablecoins are accumulating – capital is waiting to enter the market.
- Stock-to-Flow ratio rises significantly – long-term scarcity is increasing.
Rally Without Conviction: Why Are Long-Term Investors Still Skeptical?
Bitcoin recently surpassed the USD 103,000 mark – an increase of around USD 18,000 since early April. However, a key indicator shows that long-term investors remain unconvinced: the so-called NUPL value (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) remains unchanged at 0.69. This value measures the ratio of unrealized profits to losses among long-term holders. Its stagnation despite rising prices suggests caution.
One possible reason: many buyers from December 2024 are now holding their coins longer, which dilutes the share of unrealized gains. This results in a seemingly muted optimism, even though the market price has increased.
Whales Reduce Their Positions – A Warning Sign?
In the past 72 hours, so-called whales – large Bitcoin holders – have sold over 30,000 BTC. At the same time, the “Large Holders Netflow,” according to data from IntoTheBlock, has dropped by 176% over the past seven days. On a monthly basis, the decline is 71%. These figures point to a clear trend of distribution rather than accumulation.
When major market participants reduce their holdings, it can slow down short-term upward momentum. The sales by these players act as a resistance to further price increases.
Almost All Investors in Profit – Is a Sell-Off Looming?
Currently, over 94.88% of all Bitcoin addresses are in profit. Only 0.88% are below their entry price. This high level of profitability increases the risk of profit-taking. Historically, such phases often precede corrections. When many investors sell at once, supply increases – and with it, selling pressure.
Derivatives Markets: More Volume, Less Confidence
Activity in the Bitcoin derivatives markets is increasing: trading volume in futures rose by 36%, and in options by 45%. However, open interest – a measure of existing positions – tells a different story: futures rose by only 1.5%, while options declined by 5%.
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This trend suggests short-term, speculative trading – without long-term conviction. Traders are active but hesitant to take on larger risks. This points to uncertainty despite rising prices.
Stablecoins: Capital Waiting for the Right Moment
The “Exchange Stablecoin Ratio” – the ratio of stablecoins to Bitcoin on exchanges – rose by 4.49%. This indicates that more stablecoins are sitting on trading platforms, representing potential capital waiting to enter the market. So far, this capital has not been deployed. If the Bitcoin price drops, however, these funds could be quickly activated to support the price.
Stock-to-Flow Ratio Rises – Scarcity Increases
A long-term indicator of Bitcoin’s value development is the Stock-to-Flow ratio. It measures the ratio of existing supply to annual new production. Following the latest halving, this value increased by 116.67% to 43,500 – a sign of growing scarcity.
If demand picks up again, this supply shortage could significantly impact the price. However, the necessary capital inflow to realize this potential is currently missing.
Our Assessment
The Bitcoin price shows strength, but the market structure appears fragile. Long-term investors remain cautious, large holders are selling, and derivatives traders are avoiding long-term positions. At the same time, a significant amount of capital is tied up in stablecoins – ready, but not yet active.
The fundamental scarcity caused by the halving is real, but without fresh demand, it remains ineffective. Whether the current upward trend continues depends on whether new buyers are willing to absorb the selling pressure.
Sources
- IntoTheBlock
- CryptoQuant
| Symbol | BTC |
| Coin type | Alt Coin |
| Transaction Speed | Slow |
| Pros |
|
| Cons |
|
| Further practical applications | |
| Price | 103054 |
| 24h % | -0.62 % |
| 7d % | -0.57 % |
| 30d % | 22.00 % |
| 60d % | 23.75 % |
| 1y % | 55.91 % |
| Market Cap | $2,047,444,150,826.00 |
| Max. Supply | 21,000,000.00 |
| Official Links | Website | Whitepaper | Source Code |
| Socials | Reddit | X | Message Board |
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