Dogecoin Gains 10% but Faces Resistance at $0.20
Key Takeaways
- Dogecoin (DOGE) recently saw a weekly rally of over 10%, but remains below the US$0.20 mark.
- A realistic rise to US$0.74 currently appears unlikely.
- On-chain data shows weak network activity and declining confidence among major investors.
- The market is currently driven more by speculation than by fundamentals.
Current Price Development of Dogecoin
Dogecoin gained 10.25% over the past week, reaching a price of US$0.193. Despite this recovery, DOGE remains below the psychologically important resistance level of US$0.20. A sustained breakout above this level could provide new momentum – however, the necessary volume is currently lacking.
Overvaluation Despite High Market Capitalization
With a market capitalization of around US$26 billion, Dogecoin remains one of the largest cryptocurrencies. However, this valuation is based less on real-world use cases and more on the enormous circulating supply of approximately 150 billion tokens.
A look at the NVT ratio (Network Value to Transactions) shows that valuation is increasing faster than actual network usage. This suggests an overvaluation. New and active wallets are significantly below the levels seen during previous price surges. For comparison: during the breakout in November 2021, over 100,000 new addresses were registered – currently, there are only about 12,600.
The Hype Is Not Enough
Dogecoin thrives on its speculative appeal. But without real market movement or FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), the price remains trapped in a sideways trend. The resistance at US$0.20 is crucial. As long as this level is not convincingly breached with strong volume, a rise to US$0.74 remains unrealistic.
Derivatives and Whale Activity Send Warning Signals
DOGE continues to be in demand in the derivatives market: Open interest – the total volume of open futures and options – reached a monthly high of US$1.87 billion. Options trading volume also rose by 9.11%. At the same time, US$3.11 million worth of long positions were liquidated within 24 hours. This points to an overheated market.
In addition, the number of wallets holding more than 10,000 DOGE is declining. Around 4,000 of these so-called “whale” addresses have reduced their holdings. This is a clear sign of waning confidence among larger investors.
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Conclusion: US$0.74 Remains Wishful Thinking
The current market situation does not support a sustainable rise of Dogecoin to US$0.74. Neither network activity nor market behaviour currently provide the necessary foundation. Rather, DOGE appears to be caught in a speculative bubble that could burst quickly without new momentum.
Our Assessment
If you’re considering investing in Dogecoin, you should carefully weigh the risks. The coin does have a strong community and remains in the spotlight, but its fundamentals are weak. Without technological development or real-world use cases, DOGE remains highly dependent on market sentiment and short-term speculation. A realistic price target currently lies well below US$0.74.
Sources
- Glassnode
- Coinglass
| Symbol | DOGE |
| Coin type | Alt Coin |
| Transaction Speed | Medium |
| Pros |
|
| Cons |
|
| Further practical applications | |
| Price | $0.17 |
| 24h % | -2.92 % |
| 7d % | -2.85 % |
| 30d % | 3.42 % |
| 60d % | -13.74 % |
| 1y % | 20.36 % |
| Market Cap | $25,812,756,911.00 |
| Official Links | Website | Source Code |
| Socials | Reddit | X |
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