Smart Money Dumps PENGU, Price Rebound Possible
Key Takeaways
- Smart money has sold 33% of its PENGU holdings – a sign of profit-taking.
- Spot and derivatives traders are also showing bearish tendencies.
- Funding rate is negative – short positions dominate the market.
- Technical analysis indicates a potential price recovery of over 42%.
- A pullback to a key support level could trigger the upward movement.
Smart Money Pulls Back
Smart money – that is, institutional or experienced investors – has sold around 33% of its PENGU holdings in recent days. A major trigger was the sale of 52 million PENGU by the wallet “Sigil Fund.” This move coincided with a halving of the PENGU price.
Such movements often serve as a signal. Other large wallets followed suit and reduced their positions. At the same time, exchange netflow – the amount of PENGU transferred to exchanges – increased for the first time since April 27. Approximately USD 318,000 worth of PENGU was moved to trading platforms. This indicates that many traders are ready to sell.
Funding Rate Indicates Bearish Sentiment
The funding rate (FR) is an indicator of market sentiment in futures trading. Most recently, it stood at -0.0038%. This means short positions are prevailing, and sellers are paying a fee to maintain their positions. As long as this remains the case, it supports a continued downward trend.
Trading volumes also confirm this assessment. On OKX, the sell-to-buy volume ratio is 0.93. On Binance, it is 0.9613 – also a sign that sellers are dominating.
Technical Analysis: Potential for Price Increase
Despite current weakness, chart analysis shows a possible bullish scenario. PENGU is currently moving within an ascending triangle – a classic pattern for an impending breakout to the upside.
The key level here is the support at USD 0.010559. If the price tests this level again, it could form the basis for an increase of up to 42.44%. At present, it appears that larger market participants are deliberately selling to push the price down to this level – possibly to re-enter at a lower cost.
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Our Assessment
The current retreat of smart money and the negative funding rate clearly indicate: the market is short-term bearish. But this period of weakness could present an opportunity. If PENGU reaches the support level at USD 0.010559, a technical rebound is certainly possible.
For you as a trader or investor, this means: closely monitor the price movement. Entering at the support level could be worthwhile – provided that volume picks up again and confirms the trend reversal.
Sources
- Coinglass
- TradingView
- Nansen
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