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Whale Moves $22.9M in SOL to Kraken Amid Uncertainty

Key Takeaways

  • A whale transferred 132,573 SOL worth 22.9 million USD to the Kraken exchange.
  • This move could trigger short-term volatility.
  • Technical indicators point to overbought conditions and potential price corrections.
  • Social metrics for Solana are declining significantly – retail investor interest is waning.
  • Liquidation data suggests bullish pressure, especially at prices near 175 USD.

Large Transfer Sparks Movement in Solana

A major Solana investor, commonly referred to as a “whale,” recently transferred 132,573 SOL with a total value of 22.9 million USD to the crypto exchange Kraken. The transaction was made by PumpFun, a player who has already moved over 2 million SOL this year alone – equivalent to around 340 million USD.

Such transfers often indicate upcoming market movements. At the time of analysis, the price of SOL stood at 173.80 USD – a slight increase of 0.60% within 24 hours.

Declining Social Interest

Despite the whale activity, public interest in Solana is on the decline. The so-called “social dominance” – a measure of relative mentions on social media – dropped from 18.93% in January 2025 to just 3.56% on May 11. The “social volume,” or absolute number of mentions, also plummeted: from over 5,400 in January to just 122.

This trend suggests that retail investors are currently less active in discussing Solana – a potential warning sign of weakening market sentiment.

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Funding Rate Indicates Uptrend

A technical indicator known as the “OI-Weighted Funding Rate” recently turned positive (+0.0130%). This metric shows whether more market participants are betting on rising (long) or falling (short) prices. A positive value indicates that more traders are speculating on price increases – a bullish signal.

Historically, such phases have often coincided with price gains. However, caution is advised, as overbought markets can quickly correct.

Liquidations: Risk and Opportunity

A look at liquidation data reveals an imbalance: while short positions worth 1.8 million USD were liquidated, long liquidations stood at 3.33 million USD. This points to a market that reacts sensitively to price movements – particularly upward ones.

A so-called “short squeeze” is possible: if the price continues to rise, many short positions could be forcibly closed, which would further drive up the price.

Key Technical Levels in Focus

Solana is currently approaching two important technical levels: the Fibonacci extension at 1.618 (163.53 USD) and the 2.618 at 177.20 USD. These levels serve as potential resistance or support zones.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 74.21 – a value indicating overbought conditions. Such values increase the likelihood of a short-term price correction if buying momentum fades.

Decision Time: Breakout or Pullback?

The current market situation is marked by conflicting signals. On one hand, there are bullish factors such as whale activity and a positive funding rate. On the other hand, public interest is declining, and technical indicators warn of overheating.

The price zone between 175 and 177.20 USD will be crucial. A clear breakout above this level could unlock further upside potential. If the price fails to break through, a correction is likely.

Our Assessment

The recent whale transaction involving Solana is a strong signal for potential market movement. However, you should not ignore the technical indicators: an RSI above 70 and key resistance zones call for caution. In the short term, increased volatility is to be expected. If you’re invested in SOL or considering entering, closely monitor the price zone around 175 USD – this is where the short-term direction will be decided.

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