PEPE Eyes Breakout Amid Speculative Market Signals
Key Takeaways
The memecoin PEPE is currently exhibiting price behaviour reminiscent of the strong rally in October 2024, when the price surged by 227%. At present, the price is in a consolidation phase that displays similar characteristics to those seen before the previous breakout. Despite a 61% decline since the beginning of 2025, technical patterns and derivatives data suggest a potential upward movement. However, caution is warranted: the market shows no clear accumulation in the spot segment, making the rally vulnerable to pullbacks.
PEPE’s Price Performance at a Glance
PEPE, a hype-driven memecoin, recorded an impressive 1,435% increase in value in 2024. The price rose from $0.0000013 at the beginning of the year to a peak of $0.00002597 in November. This movement was preceded by a strong consolidation phase in October, which eventually led to an explosive rally.
Currently, the price is significantly below the level seen at the start of 2025. Nevertheless, the 1-day chart reveals a pattern similar to that of October 2024: tight price ranges, low volatility, and a potential setup for a breakout.
On-Chain Activity as an Early Indicator?
A look at network activity reveals that prior to the November 2024 rally, the number of active addresses rose from an average of 2,500 to over 20,000. This increase preceded the rally and indicated growing interest and accumulation.
Currently, the number of active addresses is around 2,587 – a level that also aligns with previous consolidation phases. If this pattern repeats, it could signal an impending move. However, there has yet to be a significant uptick in user activity.
Derivatives Market Indicates Elevated Risk
In contrast to on-chain activity, the derivatives market is providing clearer signals. According to data from Coinglass, open interest (OI) in PEPE futures has risen to USD 301.48 million – an increase of nearly 5% compared to the November peak. This points to increased leveraged trading activity.
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Such developments carry risks: if the price rises too quickly without new buyers entering the spot market, long positions may face liquidations. This could lead to a rapid price drop and benefit short-sellers. Investors should therefore implement tight risk management strategies.
History Doesn’t Always Repeat Itself
Although technical patterns and market behaviour appear similar, caution is advised. The current price increase is driven more by speculative liquidity than by organic buying interest. Without clear fundamentals, the rally remains vulnerable to corrections.
Another breakout like that of October 2024 is possible, but by no means guaranteed. Those hoping for short-term gains should be aware of the volatility and associated risks.
Our Assessment
PEPE is once again showing signs of a potential upward price movement. The similarities to the October 2024 rally are striking – both in the chart pattern and network activity. However, key differences remain: current market sentiment is more subdued, spot volume is low, and the rally is primarily driven by derivatives.
If you are invested in PEPE or considering entering, closely monitor on-chain data and open interest. Without a rise in user numbers and genuine buying interest, the risk remains high. A repeat of the 227% rally is possible, but unlikely without supporting fundamental data.
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