Bitcoin Holds $100K as Altcoins Poised to Rise
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin (BTC) remains above $100,000 USD but is losing market dominance.
- Altcoins could outperform Bitcoin in the medium term.
- Long-term BTC holders are reducing their holdings – a possible signal for an upcoming altcoin season.
- Macro trends suggest the end of the altcoin bear market, though a new bull run has yet to begin.
- The Altcoin Season Index currently does not indicate the immediate start of an altcoin season.
Bitcoin Dominance Under Watch
Despite volatile market conditions, Bitcoin remains above the $100,000 USD mark. However, while the price remains stable, interest is slightly declining according to Google search trends. This suggests that many investors are already positioned. At the same time, this could indicate that capital may soon shift into altcoins—especially if Bitcoin dominance continues to fall.
Long-Term Holders Becoming More Cautious
On-chain data shows that the so-called UTXO age bands—a measure of how long coins are held—have remained largely unchanged. This means many investors continue to hold their BTC but are not actively selling. At the same time, some large BTC holders are reducing their positions. This caution may explain Bitcoin’s stability, while altcoins have recently seen sharper declines.
Altcoins: Potential in Later Market Phases
Historically, altcoins tend to catch up in the second half of a market cycle. Currently, the market appears cautious, but the conditions for a redistribution seem to be in place. If Bitcoin breaks through key resistance levels, capital could flow into altcoins—a typical pattern signaling the start of an altcoin season.
Macro Trends: Altcoin Bear Market May Be Ending
When comparing the current market situation to previous cycles, such as in 2016 and 2020, parallels become apparent. Back then, extended consolidation phases were followed by strong altcoin rallies. A similar scenario could now be unfolding. The next one to three years could be decisive, especially if market conditions continue to stabilize.
Altcoin Season Index: No Season Just Yet
The Altcoin Season Index currently stands at 22. This value indicates that we are not yet in an altcoin season. Only when the index reaches a value of 75 or more is it considered a true altcoin season. Nevertheless, the conditions for a future rise are present. Patience remains key.
Our Assessment
At present, there are no clear signs of an imminent altcoin season. However, market data suggests that the conditions are gradually forming. Declining Bitcoin dominance, cautious long-term holders, and historical patterns all point to the possibility that altcoins could benefit in the medium term. Those looking to invest in altcoins should closely monitor market movements and take a strategic approach—impulsive decisions are not advisable at this stage.
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Sources
- CryptoQuant
- TradingView
- CMC Altcoin Season Index
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