Bitcoin Nears $74K as Short-Term Losses Mount
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin (BTC) recently dropped to around $74,000 USD.
- Short-term holders (STHs) are increasingly experiencing losses.
- Long-term holders (LTHs) remain profitable so far.
- A shift from STHs to LTHs may signal an upcoming bear market.
- Potential resistance at $96,000 USD could lead to increased selling pressure.
What the Price Drop Reveals About the Market
Bitcoin has recently moved significantly away from its peak. The drop to around $74,000 USD indicates a change in investor behaviour. Particularly notable: many short-term holders are now in the red. This group often seeks quick profits and is more likely to sell when prices fall.
Long-term holders, on the other hand, remain in profit despite the correction. Historically, the transition from STHs to LTHs often marks the beginning of a bear market. This means that those who initially intended to invest short-term are now holding longer—often due to a lack of exit opportunities without incurring losses.
Resistance at $96,000 USD in Focus
A key area of interest is the price zone around $96,000 USD. This is where a significant resistance level lies. Bitcoin has not been able to sustainably break through this level since February. Many wallets that bought in this range are now waiting for a renewed price increase to close their positions at a profit—or at least without a loss.
This hesitation is leading to a growing number of coins that could be sold if prices fall—a potential trigger for further declines. If BTC tests this resistance again and fails to break through, it could spark a wave of selling.
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) as a Warning Signal
An important indicator is the so-called Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL). This measures the difference between the current price and the average purchase price of held coins. For short-term holders, this value is currently deep in negative territory—a sign of stress in the market.
Historically, a negative NUPL among STHs is often an early indicator of a prolonged downward trend. Around 3.6 million addresses are currently in this loss zone. If this behaviour continues, it could evolve into a long-term trend.
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What Investors Should Keep in Mind
The current market situation is tense. While a bear market has not yet been confirmed, the warning signs are increasing. If you are invested in Bitcoin or planning to enter the market, you should closely monitor developments. The $96,000 USD range is particularly critical.
A breakout above this level could bring short-term relief. However, if the price remains below it, the likelihood of further sell-offs increases. It’s important to adjust your strategy to current market conditions.
Our Assessment
The data suggests a possible trend reversal. The shift from short-term to long-term holders is a known pattern ahead of bear markets. At the same time, the negative NUPL indicates that many investors are underwater—a potential trigger for selling pressure.
As long as Bitcoin remains below the resistance at $96,000 USD, caution is advised. A sustained breakout above this level could change the picture. Until then, investors should expect increased volatility and manage their positions accordingly. Long-term investors should remain calm—while short-term traders should take the current signals seriously.
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