Bitcoin Holders Eye Gains, $162K Possible by 2025
Key Takeaways
- The indicator for unrealized profits of Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) is currently at 27%.
- Historically, a value above 40% often triggers a wave of selling.
- Analysts expect this threshold could be reached around June 11, 2025.
- A price increase to as much as USD 162,000 is possible – under stable market conditions.
- Currently, STHs are still holding their positions, which could allow for further short-term growth.
What Does the STH Profit Indicator Mean?
The so-called “STH Unrealized Profit” indicator measures the unrealized gains of short-term holders (STHs). These are investors who hold their Bitcoin for between one and three months. An increase in this value indicates that this group is currently sitting on paper profits – gains that have not yet been realized through selling.
According to analyst Axel Adler, this value currently stands at 27%. This suggests that many short-term holders have seen significant price gains in recent weeks but have not yet sold their coins.
Historical Patterns: What Happens When STH Profits Are High?
In the past, it has been observed that when the indicator rises above 40%, a selling phase often follows. This means that many short-term holders begin to realize their gains, leading to increased selling pressure. As a result, price corrections often occur.
Currently, the indicator is rising by about 0.818 percentage points per day. If this trend continues, the critical 40% threshold could be reached on or around June 11, 2025. This could mark a potential turning point for the market.
How Could the Bitcoin Price Develop?
Based on a linear projection, the Bitcoin price could rise to approximately USD 162,000 by that time – assuming there are no external disruptions such as political events or economic shocks (“black swan events”).
In the short term, a rise to around USD 115,000 is conceivable. The market may stabilize there before attempting another upward move.
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Why Aren’t STHs Selling Right Now?
Another important indicator is the so-called MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) for short-term holders. It currently stands at 1.14. Historically, the selling phase usually begins only when this value rises above 1.2.
This means that many investors currently see no sufficient incentive to sell their Bitcoin. They apparently expect further price gains and are holding their positions.
Our Assessment
The current situation points to a phase of growing tension in the Bitcoin market. Short-term holders are sitting on significant profits but have not yet sold. This leaves room for further growth – at least in the short term.
However, if the STH profit indicator continues to rise and reaches the 40% mark, a wave of selling becomes more likely. This could lead to a correction. Those who are invested in Bitcoin or are considering investing should closely monitor these developments and adjust their strategy accordingly.
Sources
- CryptoQuant
- Checkonchain
| Symbol | BTC |
| Coin type | Alt Coin |
| Transaction Speed | Slow |
| Pros |
|
| Cons |
|
| Further practical applications | |
| Price | 106023 |
| 24h % | -1.92 % |
| 7d % | -4.78 % |
| 30d % | 12.17 % |
| 60d % | 29.57 % |
| 1y % | 56.49 % |
| Market Cap | $2,106,886,235,506.00 |
| Max. Supply | 21,000,000.00 |
| Official Links | Website | Whitepaper | Source Code |
| Socials | Reddit | X | Message Board |
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