Bitcoin Whales Slow Selling, Market Eyes Breakout
Key Takeaways
- Long-term Bitcoin holders are reducing their activity – a possible signal of upcoming accumulation.
- Whale netflows are dropping significantly, indicating reduced selling pressure.
- On-chain data shows a neutral to slightly bullish valuation picture.
- Social metrics point to increasing interest from retail investors.
- A breakout above the USD 96,000 level could spark a new upward movement.
Long-Term Holders Step Back – Calm Before the Storm?
The “Coin Days Destroyed” (CDD) metric measures how long-held Bitcoins are moved. A decline suggests that long-term holders are selling less. Currently, the 60-day CDD value has returned to its baseline – after nearly a year of elevated activity. This could be a sign that the market is preparing for a new accumulation phase.
Bitcoin is currently trading at around USD 95,167 and has been moving sideways for several days – just below the resistance at USD 96,000. This price zone is crucial for the future price trend.
Whales Hold Back – Selling Pressure Eases
The so-called “whales” – large Bitcoin holders – appear to have significantly reduced their selling activity. The 7-day netflow metric dropped by –619.31%, meaning far fewer BTC were transferred from wallets to exchanges. The 30-day and 90-day values also show sharp declines of –110.24% and –61.82%, respectively.
Fewer inflows to exchanges often mean: less intent to sell. This trend aligns with the declining activity of long-term holders and suggests a stabilization of supply.
MVRV Ratio Shows Rising Profits – But No Overheating
The MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) is a measure of the average profitability of Bitcoin holders. The current value is 126.73%, up from around 83% in April. This means: most investors are back in profit.
Historically, a high MVRV value can lead to selling pressure. However, compared to previous peaks, the current level is moderate. A sharp correction is therefore not necessarily expected.
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On-Chain Valuations: Neither Overpriced Nor a Bargain
Two other metrics provide insight into fundamental valuation:
- NVT Golden Cross: Down by –75.03%, indicating undervaluation relative to transaction volume.
- Puell Multiple: Currently at 1.08, slightly declining. This metric measures the ratio between daily Bitcoin issuance and the 365-day average.
Both indicators point to a balanced market – neither overheated nor undervalued.
Social Buzz Increases – Retail Investors Become Active Again
Social metrics are also showing movement. Social dominance is at 25.04%, and social volume at 3,274. These values reflect growing community interest – especially during phases when Bitcoin tests key price levels.
An increase in social activity often goes hand-in-hand with higher volatility. If interest continues to rise, it could bring additional momentum to the market.
Technical Outlook: Decision Approaching
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is at a critical juncture. The price is hovering just below USD 96,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 66.60 – near the overbought zone. Bollinger Bands are tightening, which often signals upcoming strong price movements.
Key support levels are at USD 92,700 and USD 89,500. If Bitcoin can sustainably break through the USD 96,000 mark, a rise to USD 99,000 or even USD 100,000 could follow. A failure at this hurdle would extend the sideways phase.
Our Assessment
Current data suggests a phase of preparation in the Bitcoin market. Long-term holders and large investors are reducing their selling activity. Fundamental and technical indicators show a balanced picture – with a slightly bullish tone.
For you as an investor, this means: closely watch the USD 96,000 level. A clear breakout above it could initiate the next upward trend. At the same time, the current stability is a sign of a healthy market environment – without extreme overvaluations.
Sources
- IntoTheBlock
- Santiment
- TradingView
| Symbol | BTC |
| Coin type | Alt Coin |
| Transaction Speed | Slow |
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