Ethereum Eyes Breakout Amid Volatility Signals
Key Takeaways
- Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading within a narrow price range between $1,540 and $1,630 USD.
- Technical indicators suggest a potential breakout – a directional move may be imminent.
- Whales (large investors) are sending mixed signals: slight accumulation, but also significant distribution over the past 30 days.
- Market leverage is increasing – this could lead to heightened volatility.
- ETH’s burn rate is dropping significantly – a sign of declining network activity.
ETH in a Critical Sideways Phase
Ethereum is currently in a consolidation phase between two major supply zones: $1,540 and $1,630 USD. According to on-chain data, more than 7.9 million ETH were bought within this range – a key area for both buyers and sellers.
Over the past 24 hours, price movement has been minimal. ETH dropped only 0.37%, indicating a period of low volatility. Such phases often precede a significant price breakout.
Key Support and Resistance Zones
Analysis of IOMAP data (In/Out of the Money Around Price) shows strong support between $1,513 and $1,585 USD. Approximately 6.6 million ETH are in profit within this range.
On the other hand, resistance lies between $1,585 and $1,630 USD. Around 3.37 million addresses are holding a total of 7.91 million ETH at a loss in this zone. These price levels are critical for future price development.
Technical Structure: Downtrend Remains Intact
ETH continues to move within a descending price channel that has been in place since January 2025. Every attempt to break through the upper boundary has been rejected so far. Currently, the price is testing the midline of this channel – a neutral area with limited clarity.
As long as ETH does not break above $1,630 USD, the bearish structure remains intact. In the event of a decline, the next key support level could be around $1,475 USD.
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Whales and Leveraged Positions: Preparing for a Move?
Activity among large wallets shows a mixed picture. Over the past seven days, net inflow increased by 10.76% – indicating slight accumulation. However, over a 30-day period, there’s a decrease of 46.70%, pointing to significant selling.
On a 90-day comparison, net flow remains slightly positive at +1.77%. This suggests an overall neutral to slightly bullish stance among large investors.
At the same time, the estimated leverage ratio (the ratio of open leveraged positions to total holdings) has risen to 0.7009 – up 1.01% in just 24 hours. This indicates increasing speculation. If ETH breaks out of the current range, sudden price movements due to liquidations could follow.
Ethereum’s Deflationary Effect Weakens
Another factor: Ethereum’s burn rate is declining. Over the past seven days, only 27.08% of transaction fees were burned – significantly lower than the 90-day average of 42.38%. This means: less network activity, lower demand, and a weakened deflationary effect.
Without a recovery in on-chain activity, it could be difficult to establish a sustainable upward trend.
Our Assessment
Ethereum is at a turning point. The current price zone between $1,540 and $1,630 USD acts as a tension zone between buyers and sellers. Technically, the downtrend remains intact unless a breakout above $1,630 USD occurs.
Rising leveraged positions and mixed signals from large investors suggest an impending move – in either direction. However, the declining burn rate weakens the fundamental bullish case.
A breakout above $1,630 USD could open the door to new price targets around $1,860 USD. Conversely, if the price falls below $1,540 USD, the $1,475 USD level becomes the next key target.
Stay alert – the coming days could be pivotal for ETH’s mid-term trend.
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