Monero Soars 50%, Hacker Link Sparks Caution
Key Takeaways
- Monero (XMR) saw a 50% price increase within 24 hours.
- The surge was triggered by a massive capital movement allegedly linked to a hacker.
- Market data indicates that the increase is not supported by fundamental factors.
- Technical indicators suggest the asset is overvalued and may face a price correction.
What’s Behind the Sudden Price Surge?
An unusual influx of capital temporarily pushed Monero (XMR) higher. According to well-known on-chain analyst ZachXBT, approximately 3,520 Bitcoins—worth around 330 million USD—were converted into XMR across multiple exchanges. These funds are believed to be linked to a hacker. The transactions caused a sharp increase in liquidity, resulting in a price jump of over 50%.
Market Sentiment Suggests Rally May Not Be Sustainable
Despite the short-term hype, market sentiment paints a different picture. The so-called OI-weighted Funding Rate—an indicator that measures the ratio of open interest to funding rates—fell to -0.5757%. This is the lowest value of the year. A negative value like this indicates that many traders are betting on falling prices. This development contradicts the sharp rise in trading volume, suggesting an unstable market environment.
Technical Analysis: Overbought and Under Selling Pressure
A look at the technical indicators confirms the skepticism. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 83.67. Values above 70 are considered overbought—a clear signal of a potential price correction. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which measures the ratio of buying to selling pressure, dropped from 0.34 to 0.22. While the CMF remains in positive territory, the decline indicates that sellers are currently in control.
What’s Next for the XMR Price?
At the moment, XMR is facing resistance around 284.88 USD. If the price continues to decline, the next support level could be around 231.96 USD. Should that level also break, a drop to 199.40 USD is conceivable—a level XMR recently moved away from. These zones are critical for the future price trajectory.
Our Assessment
The recent price surge in Monero is not based on solid fundamentals but rather on a one-time capital movement, likely by a hacker. Technical and sentiment-based indicators clearly point against a sustainable rally. If you’re considering investing in XMR now, proceed with caution. The likelihood of a price correction is high. Investors already holding XMR should monitor support zones closely and consider taking profits if necessary.
Sources
- Coinglass
- TradingView
- ZachXBT (On-Chain Analyst)
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