Bitcoin at Critical Resistance, Volatility Ahead
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The Essentials at a Glance
Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture. The $95,783 mark forms a strong resistance zone. A clear breakout above this level could trigger a new upward movement. At the same time, the risk of liquidations is rising due to the high leverage in the futures market. Traders should closely monitor developments over the coming days.
Bitcoin: Between Rally and Setback
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently moving within a critical range. The MVRV ratio – an indicator that measures the relationship between the current price and the average purchase price – stands at 2.13. It is approaching the important 365-day moving average (SMA365) of 2.14. Historically, crossing above this line often marks the beginning of medium-term uptrends.
A confirmed weekly close above the SMA365 could pave the way for a sustained recovery. If it fails, a new wave of selling could follow.
Speculation Increasing Significantly
Open interest – the total sum of open positions – in Bitcoin futures markets has risen by 20% over the past 20 days and now exceeds $26 billion USD. At the same time, the estimated leverage ratio has increased by 0.99%. This indicates that more and more traders are using borrowed capital to amplify their positions.
Rising leverage can lead to strong short-term price movements. However, it also increases the risk of sudden liquidation waves if market sentiment shifts rapidly.
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Technical Analysis: Resistance at $95,783
Bitcoin recently broke upwards out of a falling wedge pattern – a generally bullish signal. BTC is currently trading at around $94,036 USD, representing a slight decline of 0.71% over 24 hours.
The area around $95,783 remains fiercely contested. A clear daily close above this level would be a strong buy signal. If Bitcoin fails at this resistance, the price could fall back to the next support zone around $83,462 USD.
Declining Stock-to-Flow Ratio: Implications for Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow ratio (S2F), which measures the relationship between existing supply and new issuance, has fallen by 22.22%. The model, often used to predict long-term price developments, is thus facing short-term pressure.
Nonetheless, Bitcoin’s long-term scarcity remains intact. Short-term price fluctuations are currently being driven more by liquidity, leverage, and market sentiment.
Liquidation Map: Key Price Zones in Focus
An analysis of the liquidation map shows dense clusters of long liquidations between $93,000 and $94,000 USD. This zone forms an important short-term support.
If the price falls below this range, further liquidations could be triggered, potentially pushing Bitcoin down to around $91,000 USD. Conversely, a breakout above $95,783 USD would clear the way for a rapid upward movement, as there is less liquidation pressure above this level.
Our Assessment
Bitcoin is entering a decisive phase. A sustained breakout above the $95,783 mark could initiate a strong rally. However, the current market environment is characterized by high leverage ratios and speculative excesses, increasing overall risk.
Those investing or trading should closely monitor price developments over the next few days. In particular, the reaction to the resistance zone will be crucial in assessing the market’s next direction.
Sources
CryptoQuant
TradingView
CoinGlass
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